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Share picking is akin to weather prediction - no one can predict with certainty five hours from now if the price will rise or fall, much less five years from now.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that help to reduce the risk and increase the odds of profiting over the long term. After all, historically stocks have returned over 10%, as measured by the growth of the S&P 500.

The first step is to get educated. Learn not only about dividends yields and earnings per share, but also some basic accounting. Reported figures have an air of authority but the sad fact remains that those numbers are arrived at, in part, by accounting methods which are not cut and dried. 

The Enron case (case in which the executives of Enron manipulated their earnings figures to appear to be much more
successful than they were) is extreme, but even ordinary procedures involve judgment calls on the part of financial officers and auditors.

Next, commit to continuing research about stocks both inside and outside your intended portfolio, and update it as you buy and sell. There’s a broad spectrum between exact prediction and throwing darts blindly. In the long run, those who do their homework do far better and almost all day traders lose money.

Research both prospective buys and intended sells. Many investors put considerable time and effort into analyzing a buy, but then only watch for some price to be reached in order to sell. Knowing when to sell is just as important, and a target should be selected before the share is bought.

RESEARCHING BUYS

Obtain the latest, and some historical, financial statements. The SEC provides these free (www.sec.gov) in their EDGAR database, but other exchanges have similar arrangements.

Analyze the quarterly statements covering two to three years, looking for EPS (earnings per share) and revenue trends. Calculate dividend yields, if the company pays dividends.

Compare the company’s P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio to others in the same economic sector. Look at P/S (Price to Sales) ratios, too. Sales growth is easier to predict than earnings and less volatile than P/E ratios. 

Examine general economic factors. Interest rates affect share prices as well as bonds (though less directly), since almost every company borrows money. Even when they don’t, their competitors, suppliers, and customers do. Interest charges reduce profits for all but the lenders, for whom it’s income. 

Even when researching a bank, though, high interest rates increase short-term profits, but can reduce the number of loans and cause certain current ones to be repaid early. High interest rates aren’t necessarily good for banks either, therefore.

Use some of the more common technical indicators, such as MA (moving averages) and RSI (Relative Strength Index, which compares the number of days a share finishes up versus down). An RSI of 70, or above, for example, does tend to indicate a stock which is overbought and due for a fall in price.

RESEARCHING SELLS

Pick a target price, which amounts to deciding how much profit (in dollars or percentage terms) you seek then sell at that price, unless your continuing research has turned up significant new information.

Consider selling if the price has dropped substantially or remained unchanged for several months. Losses are hard to bear, but consider that you can’t always pick winners and while you’re invested in one share, you’re forgoing potential profit from another. That profit could help reduce or more than make up for the loss from the sale.

Continue to monitor the company’s fundamentals by obtaining updated filings. Re-evaluate them by updating earnings trend calculations, significant management or general economic changes.

You can ease the difficulty of performing calculations (which is a useful exercise at least once) by finding Internet sites that provide objective data and go easy on the “here’s how to pick winners” sales talk.

And remember, ‘on the street’ opinions are a dime a dozen - including mine.

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As with gamblers in Las Vegas so it is with share investments, ‘everybody’s got a system’. The goal of research, however, is to make the activity a lot less like gambling and a lot more like investment.

For those without the time or temperament to carry out research themselves, there are full time research services available - for a fee, of course. Full-Service brokerages, such as Merrill Lynch and other large, well-established firms offer research as part of their value to clients.

But there are firms, both traditional and the newer online variety, that offer research without the advice available from the broker. Whether the research (and the advice) are worth what it costs is an ongoing debate.

For those who see research not as a necessary evil or time-consuming burden, but as part of the process or even an adventure, there are now more sources than could be used in a lifetime.

Starting with the source of data is always a safe bet, since it’s the most unbiased, thoroughly audited information around. That source is the legally required filings of individual publicly traded companies.

In the U.S. those are 10-K’s - more or less equivalent to lengthy annual reports - which can be viewed or downloaded from the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). (10-Q’s are filed quarterly, 8-K’s for significant financial changes in between.) Other countries have their equivalents, such as the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission (HKSRC).

In those reports you’ll find recent (as of the filing date) financial data about income, expectations, competition and lines of business, current senior management listings and other information useful to those inclined toward Fundamental Analysis. 

Quarterly reports and annual reports are sent automatically to share holders, even those with only one share (though they’re usually traded in lots of 100 or more.) But, they’re often available free by calling or emailing the Investment Relations department; after all, companies want you to buy their share. They contain the same factual data as 10-K’s and 10-Q’s but occasionally wording differs, for those interested in subtle details.

For a modest annual or one-time fee, a blizzard of chart data is available that matches any produced by the in-house research departments of the large brokerages. (Sometimes they’re produced by the same people.)

Newsletters are another potentially good source of information, though opinions about the market vary so widely that researching whom to believe takes as much time and care as researching individual shares. Sometimes they’re a few dollars per year, sometimes many hundreds - and price is no indicator of quality here.

One direct source of one kind of information are the in-person, on TV, or on the Internet interviews of company senior managers, usually by one or a panel of analysts.

CEOs, CFOs, and others often talk to the financial press and brokerage share analysts to give their views on where their company stands, what challenges they face, and where they expect to be in the near to long-term future. Often they’re asked about specific pending lawsuits or legislation and to assess its potential impact.

Of course, executives have an interest in painting a rosy picture, but analysts have often heard it all and are very adept at keeping the ’spin factor’ to a minimum. If nothing else, it tells you what the executives want you to believe, which in itself is useful.

Even armed with nothing more than an inexpensive online trading account, the average investor has access to charts of historical and current data, future expectations, and a wide variety of statistical information which would keep even the most technically inclined busy for quite some time.

Be sure to use it all, or as much as you can absorb in the time available, when formulating a trading strategy. And remember, opinions ‘on the street’ are a dime a dozen - including mine.

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Understanding the share market starts with understanding stocks. A stock represents partial ownership of a company - the smallest share possible. Company’s issues stocks to raise capital and investors who buy stock are actually buying a portion of the company. Ownership, even a small share, gives investors rights to a say in how the company is run and a share in the profits (if any). While stocks give owners certain rights, they do not carry obligation in case the company defaults or faces a lawsuit. In a worst-case scenario the stock will become worthless but that is the limit to the investor’s liability.

Companies issue stocks to raise capital. They may need a cash injection to expand or to acquire new properties. Each stock issue is limited to a certain number of shares, and when they are issued they are given a par value. The market quickly adjusts that par value according the perceived health of the company and its potential for growth.  

Investors usually buy stocks because they believe the company will continue to grow and the value of their shares will rise accordingly. Investors who acquire stock in a new company are taking more of a risk than buying shares of well-established companies but the potential gain is much greater. Those who bought Microsoft shares early in the game (and did not sell them) saw an exponential rise in their value.

stock trading is done on stock exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System). This means that only companies listed on a public exchange have shares that can be bought and sold on the open market. Of course, you could also buy partial ownership in a smaller company that is not listed on a stock exchange but that is a very different type of investment than buying shares.

Because stocks must be bought and sold on a stock exchange, an individual investor needs a broker to make transactions for him. Brokers take orders to buy or sell a certain stock. The order may include instructions to trade at a certain price or simply what the market will bear. Once the broker receives the order he attempts to execute it by finding a buyer or seller as the case may be. The buyer or seller is also represented by a broker and each broker receives a commission on the sale.

stocks have several advantages over savings investments. Because they represent ownership in a company they give the holder rights to participate in major decisions the company faces. Every share represents one vote and shareholders are regularly asked to vote on important matters. Ownership also allows stockholders to benefit from any profits the company makes. Profits are distributed in the form of dividends, and may be issued once or twice a year at the discretion of the company directors.

If the company prospers the value of the stock will rise and distribution of profits also increases. The downside of this is that if the company does poorly the value of the shares may fall.  

When compared with savings investments (like bonds or bank certificates of deposit) stocks have the potential to earn more money — but they also carry the risk of loss. Learning about the stock market and the various investment strategies can help to minimize loss, and most investors find they do much better on the stock market than is possible with any kind of savings investment.

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